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Red Hot market cooling down for Home Loans

Home Loans given in last 3 years (2004-2007) form 71 % of total home loans.

During 2001-2006 the home loans have grown 35%. During 2006-2007 home
loans are growing at 18%. For 2007-2008 it is expected at 10%.

"In 2006-07, the proportion of monthly income being paid out as home
loan installments grew to more than 50 % for an average home buyer
from around 32 % in 2003-04. "

Interest rates in past 3 years have gone up by 4%.

"There could also be a risk of default if the rise in EMIs outstrips
the growth in salaries. For a 400 basis point increase in interest
rates, EMIs on 15-20 year loans taken in 2003-04 would have to go up
by 10-26 per cent to fully absorb the impact of hike in interest
rates."

Now couple this stats with a growing trend. "The rupee is appreciating
against dollar".

What u get a deadly mix for loan takers.

1) Since the rupee is appreciating, there is little scope of higher
salary increments for IT guys. (Or people in export oriented biz.)

2) Anticipating the demand, builders are releasing new flats. These
new building , which will have fewer takers will bring down the cost
of flats. The home-loan takers do-not stand to make big profits by
just selling their flats.

3) Foreign capital is pouring in india. The effect of this would be
that local companies (services, infrastructure,banks) will have good
growth. And people working in these firms will now be the new-buyers.
So there is little chance that will be a major drop in interest rates.
So for an average IT guy (a risky sector), sitting on fat-loan is a
real issue.

2 comments:

Shane Castane said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Shane Castane said...

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